This is for thursday, the 21st of january i’m, james spann, the weather wet at times today and tomorrow there may be some strong storms in here early next week on monday, much to discuss. So here we go. This is the upper air look across the country. An upper low is just south of southern california, got a stalled surface boundary around here and that’s going to set up the wet weather in the short term. That was the radar early this morning around 4 46, and you can see large areas of light rain across the state. We’Ll see rain at times today. Tonight, tomorrow, no severe weather worries, probably no thunder. Temperatures are in the 40s this morning, we’re expecting highs in the upper 50s low 60s. Today there’s the watch warning map very quiet, no major storm systems to deal with no major high impact events. There could be some thunder. This is the severe weather outlook. Maybe some thunder just south and west of alabama, but no severe storms expected. However, we do note on day four, which is sunday. The spc now has a chance of severe storms defined over parts of north texas and south oklahoma, including dallas fort worth. They do not define a risk on day five monday at this point, but we’ll talk about that as we go. This is the precipitation for the next seven days a lot down here. Rain amounts between one and three inches for much of alabama.
Between now and thursday morning of next week, so model fans let’s go here’s, the gfs, the o6c run three o’clock. Today you can see the upper feature lifting out of the southwest and again with that in a stalled surface boundary cloudy with occasional rain. Today, the high around 60 in most spots tomorrow, again rain at times during the day. This is suggesting the tennessee valley might be dry with a little drier air uh huntsville, the shoals scottsboro, maybe down to coleman, but for much of the state still wet and a bit cooler. The high will be in the mid 50s tomorrow saturday we’ll squeeze in that dry day. Maybe a few showers near the immediate gulf coast. Most of the state, though rain, free, partly sunny with a high in the middle 50s and again, i think, much of the day sunday dry. The hike could be up in the low 60s. It might be a fairly decent day, but clouds will likely increase and there could be a few showers over the northwestern part of the state late in the day and then monday we go wet again. I’Ve got a pretty deep surface load that’s located just to the west of memphis and monday would be a mild day. We could be in the low 70s on monday, with showers and thunderstorms likely. This is the european solution, pretty similar the low a little deeper, not too far from st louis and obviously with that configuration we’re going to be in the warm sector.
This is the instability and again this is not overwhelming, but, as we often say, you don’t need that much in january for strong, maybe severe storms – and this is the lightning flash density product off the european showing a batch of thunderstorms around here. So just be aware, monday could be an active day with a chance of strong, maybe severe storms for parts of the deep south, including alabama. Once we get a little closer, we can define that risk a little better tuesday. That feature is on by we’re dry still, pretty comfortable highs should be in the 60s and then wednesday. Now the gfs depicting some rain with that next shortwave, so uh rain producer is coming at us pretty quickly. This is no severe weather. Look. The high would be back in the 50s as cooler air drops in, and this is a week from today, thursday, the 28th a northwest flow aloft and a cool dry air mass we’ll go out 10 days. This is saturday, the 30th of january, pretty impressive, shortwave to the north, a deep surface, slow, that’s, just northeast of st louis and again that might bring some active storms but again clearly no sign of any bitterly cold air for the next 10 days. No cross polar flow, which doesn’t bode well for the snow fans. This is the snow output from the european 50 members. Three show a few snowflakes and that’s it so again, that’s, basically showing no winter weather issues through about the fourth of february.
This is the rain for the same period, the mean between three and four inches, pretty wet pattern. Setting up here. Look at the numbers. Look at that high monday approaching 70. that’s that day we’ll be watching for strong storms, otherwise, temperatures looking pretty seasonal highs, mostly in the 50s and lows, mostly in the 30s and the 40s, and the cpc outlook into early february suggesting temperatures here might be a smidgen. Above average that’s it for the weather extreme video this morning, we’ll have notes on the blog, the next video here by three o’clock this afternoon.