This is for monday, the 25th day of january i’m, james spann unseasonably mild today we’re going to be in the 70s this afternoon. Maybe some strong storms late tonight, but the severe weather risk is low. Then we turn colder later this week, pretty active pattern here, so let’s dive into it. There’S the upper look, big trough lifting out of the southwest united states that’s, going to create a variety of inclement weather for much of the eastern half of the country. In coming days, that was the radar this morning, a little before five o’clock widespread rain north of alabama over tennessee, just a few spotty patches of light rain around here we’re in the 50s to start the day, we’re expecting low 70s today should be the warmest day. So far this year, there’s the watch warning map look at all the winter weather issues back in the southwest united states, the mountains of arizona, utah new mexico, winter storm warnings, in effect from kansas up to near chicago. This is the expected snow from the national weather service and look at the numbers through parts of nebraska northern kansas iowa over to chicago some locations around omaha could receive one foot of snow from this system. It’Ll be a big time winter storm for them. In the warm sector, a chance of strong storms from northeastern texas up into kentucky there’s a marginal risk that’s level, one out of five there kind of clipping the northwestern corner of the state.
At this point for most of alabama’s severe storms are not expected tonight tomorrow. Maybe some thunder for parts of alabama pretty much the same thing on day three, which is wednesday but again no severe weather expected. This is the precipitation for the next seven days. The really big numbers are california snow in the mountains, the sierra nevadas they’re going to be slammed with feet of snow and heavy rain for inland areas as well and around here. The amounts between one and two inches through monday morning of next week, so model fans here’s the gfs. The o6c run valid today at three there’s, your trough upper low back in the southwest and again a surface low forms to the southeast of kansas city. Under a thousand millibars a big snowstorm beginning to form north and west of that, and of course, we’re in the warm sector uh, this is today at three o’clock and really during the day, i don’t think it rains that much it’ll be windy. A strong gradient winds will increase, maybe gusting to 25 30 miles an hour this afternoon and tonight and there could be a few isolated showers, but again a lot of clouds around today: low 70s breezy, but not much rain. Now this is uh tonight at 10, o’clock showers are possible and this is after midnight, 2 a.m showing showers in here, but really not a lot. So let’s look at some of the severe weather parameters and again this is going to be at 2 a.
m after midnight. The instability values are there, temperatures going to be very balmy, we’ll, be in the upper 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s instability values. The cape will exceed 500 joules per kilogram in spots. Shear values are marginal, not that impressive, and this is the main limiting factor. This is the temperature about 10 000 feet off the ground, 700 millibars and there’s going to be a warm layer up there and that really reduces the lapse rates and kind of caps. Everything off so that’s the biggest limiting factor in getting some strong storms going late tonight, but, as always we’ll be watching radar trends carefully. Then, tomorrow the surface front gets down below interstate 20 and stalls. So tomorrow, the better chance of any rain will likely be across the southern half of the state for north alabama, maybe a little sun, probably not much highs will be in the 60s and then wednesday, a wave forms on the front, and so rain increases again tuesday Night into wednesday, especially wednesday morning – and we do know, this might bring some snow to parts of tennessee, not alabama wednesday will be a day with a high in the 60s periods of rain, especially during the morning and all that’s gone on thursday. The sky becoming sunny colder highs around 50, maybe upper 40s. This is friday, we’ll be below freezing we’ll, be in the 20s friday morning, the high friday in the 50s, with a sunny sky – and this is saturday as the weekend begins – we’re dry – the high will be maybe up there towards 60, pretty comfortable day new storm off To the west, and that will likely bring rain in here by sunday.
This is sunday at three o’clock looks like the better chance of rain could be midnight saturday night to noon sunday. The way it looks now and again, no severe weather with that – and this is a week from today monday, the 1st of february northwest flow aloft and a cool dry air mass we’ll go out 10 days. This is wednesday of next week. The third big trough in the west ridge in the east storm system getting closer but again there’s no evidence of any cross polar flow bitterly cold arctic air, where we are for the next 10 days, so snow fans. This is not looking good european ensemble. That runs us out through the 8th of february, just basically showing no chance of any meaningful snow rain for birmingham off the same model, the mean about three inches for the next 15 days. Temperatures you can see 71 today, but then the high dropping to 48 on thursday, but after that seasonal highs, mostly in the 50s and the cpc outlook. This is for the 1st through the 7th of february. Suggesting temperatures here would be a little above average that’s it for the weather extreme video this morning, we’ll have notes on the blog, the next video here by three o’clock this afternoon. You can catch us this evening on abc 33 40 news at 4, 5, 6 and 10.