We are once again going to be talking about that extreme winter, storm we’re, going to be seeing severe weather snowfall and an ice storm with this. So there is multiple extremes going on now before i get started with this video, though i would ask that you do subscribe if you do other related content and also make sure to share this video with your friends, family and social media i’d. Also highly recommend that you check out our very exciting patreon page, where we’re gon na be talking about that second upcoming snowstorm. That looks very major at this point, potentially even more major than this one. Actually, so you can check that out in the description in the pin comment down below now for today’s comment of the day. I actually want to ask you guys about that storm in particular. Do you think it’s going to end up happening and if so, where is it going to impact? Let me know in the comments down below and i’ll, be picking one of those for tomorrow’s video let’s get into this video and first things, first we’re taking a look at that european model once again and as you can see, we’re taking a look at that little Bit of first initial snowfall that goes on it’s kind of a separate system, but i’ve been counting it as the same it is associated there. We see this is at about 3 a.m. Tomorrow, from the time i’m making this video so at about sunday, 3 a.
m. Time frame and as you can see, there is some light to moderate snowfall going on for the upper midwest now let’s just move on towards about 11 a.m. There. On monday, at on january 25th, there, and, as you can see, there is some moderate to heavy snowfall going on for kansas nebraska iowa missouri. There also some ice on the southern extent. You can see there within that pink brick band that’s, where we’re going to be seeing some freezing rain where that ice storm is beginning to take hold. We also see quite a bit of heavy rainfall going on to the south likely severe weather there for oklahoma and texas as well. So this is going to be major impacts, going on already to begin this storm in the morning hours of monday. Now, what we’re going to do is move on towards where that snowstorm is going to get even larger, take up more regions and get even heavier in just a moment all right now, here we are taking a look at about 11 p.m. There, on monday january 25th and as you can see, we have moderate to heavy snowfall going on for nebraska iowa missouri, illinois, indiana, ohio and even down there from virginia maryland dc the delmarva as well, where we see a little bit of a more eastern band going On and then in between those two, we actually see a lot of freezing rain still going on for those pink regions.
Now the storm prediction center doesn’t have any severe weather by this point, for the southeast, like i’ve indicated, could be possible. I’M. Still sticking with the fact that that could be possible, i would certainly not be surprised to see a marginal risk pop up here, uh for this time frame monday into tuesday there for portions of the gulf states in the southeast, as well with the amount of cape With the amount of sheer and then also having those storms in the area, it’s hard for me to imagine not seeing at least a very, very slim chance of severe weather and then by time we reach about 11 a.m there. On tuesday, you can see that storm is pretty much coming to an end now let’s watch that second storm come through and this one actually starts it out for the ohio valley, which is very interesting, so indiana, missouri, uh illinois as well, and then eventually this reaches The mid atlantic has a much weaker storm than what the other models are suggesting. The gfs and the canadian model have a very major snowstorm for this. Second, for the second one for portions of the mid atlantic, we’re gon na take a look at that in just a moment. Uh speaking of the gfs we’re about to move on and take a look at what the gfs has to say for both of these upcoming snowstorms now, first things. First here is our first storm. Obviously, and, as you can see, this is by about 11 p.
m. There, on monday, so we’re just starting out pretty late with this one. You can see that heavy snowfall starting out for kansas, nebraska iowa missouri kind of going into illinois. But the thing is we’re kind of trending a little bit warmer for those more eastern areas, and the thing is that’s going to allow for that freezing rain to just kind of float up a little bit further north than originally anticipated. It’S going to be a wintry mess for those regions, we’ll see it on my total snowfall map that these areas have a little bit less snowfall anticipated because of those mixing issues also notice. There is some freezing rain going on for virginia west virginia uh maryland as well pretty heavy actually, so we could start to see that ice begin to stick and see a quite significant ice storm for those regions actually, according to our gfs model. Now, as we move on towards about 3 p.m, or so here on tuesday january 26, you can see that storm is much further north. On the eastern extent of it, we see southern michigan getting in on some of this, the upstate regions of new york and western new york finger lakes regions as well pretty much north of pennsylvania. This model seems to be a bit further north than the rest of them and then by time we reach maybe about 3 a.m. Here, on wednesday january 27th, you can see this is coming to an end.
Actually, we do see some light to moderate snowfall going on, though now let’s take a look at that very major snowstorm that follows this one. This is at about 3 a.m. On thursday, and as you can see, it starts out as rain for north carolina and virginia the areas where originally these models were saying snowfall. So we can see these major shifts going on, which is very typical. This far out that’s why we haven’t made a video about that storm yet and also because we have a winter storm happening before it, but that’s beside the point by the time we reach about 11 a.m there on thursday january 28th, you could tell this is a Very major winter storm, according to this model, northern virginia dc maryland into the delmarva, seeing extremely heavy snowfall, uh, possibly blizzard conditions, it’s hard to say what the wind would be like in this scenario. But honestly, we have a 985 millibar low pressure center at this point, which is very strong and then by time we reach the next frame. You can see it actually extends further towards the coast as we reach those nighttime hours and it’s a 979 millibar low pressure center by this point, so the gfs says major major snowstorm, potentially the biggest snowstorm of the year so far. If this was to play out this way, so if you want to see more about this storm check out the patreon page it’s cheaper than the price of a coffee, an absolute steal at this point and we’re making very detailed posts almost daily over there.
So i highly highly recommend it now. What we’re going to do is move on and we’re going to move on, take a look at the canadian model, real, quick and then we’re going to start talking about the impacts. Ice storm total snowfall uh the severe weather threat as well we’re going to be talking about all of that in just a moment, so here’s that canadian model and as you can see, we’re starting things out at about 1 pm there on monday and as you can See it’s a little bit further south than the rest of the models, which is very interesting. We still see that freezing rain. That seems to be a trend with all of these models that it’s becoming evident. We will have some sort of an ice storm, at least some heavier snow, going on for nebraska kansas as well. By time we reach about 7 a.m there. On tuesday, you can see that we do see that snowfall going on pretty much from nebraska and kansas. All the way through missouri iowa illinois, indiana ohio pennsylvania, even in through new jersey, so this storm is a bit further south. With that first storm, like i said, we do see that significant ice going on for the mid atlantic on this model as well, and then by the time we reach about maybe 12 p.m there. On tuesday, you can still see that snowfall going on for pennsylvania, new jersey and the freezing rain to the south, northern virginia west, virginia maryland, and even dc and delaware there as well and then with the second storm.
It looks strikingly similar to the gfs model. So let’s take this to about 12 p.m there on thursday and as you can see, moderate to heavy snowfall going on for virginia maryland dc delaware, new jersey. This would be an extremely major snowstorm. I think this is just what we need right now. A lot of people are hoping for a snowstorm in these regions as well, and then, as you can see, as this one finishes out, the coast reaches uh. It turns over to snow. At about this is maybe about, i would say, actually about 3 p.m. There. On thursday, so this is kind of the trend with the models the cold does move in eventually and all the areas switch over to snowfall. This does include my location. I know a lot of people on hampton roads in eastern virginia in general watch my channel so that’s. Why? I want to kind of specify that that it does have our area switching over to snow at a certain point, all right now. What we’re going to do is we’re going to move on we’re going to take a look at a few things, we’re going to take a look at the severe weather threat. According to the storm prediction center, we’re going to take a look at the freezing, rain total and then we’re going to start talking about the modeled snowfall guidance according to the european model, the gfs model and the canadian model. And then we’re going to get into my official snowfall forecast and then finally, my confidence tab at the very end of this video, so stay tuned for all those things all right now, here’s that severe weather threat and as you can see, we have a slight risk For severe weather at this point, do i think this is a little small and a little low yeah.
I think it could expand into more regions. I think i would make that slight risk bigger, considering the amount of shear and cape, but we will have to wait and see. I certainly like the area that they’re pinning down, though dallas fort worth basically take that north eastward into oklahoma. I think that’s the biggest threat for severe weather at this point, that’s, where the strongest of the storms will be uh where that meets with that high amount of cape and also there’s going to be sheer pretty much everywhere. So i think the severe weather threat is quite considerable at this point. Let’S take a look at that freezing rain total and, as you can see, if you’re anywhere in the brighter pinks you’re under a quarter inch of ice, which is basically just a small amount. If anything, and then in those more darker pinks that’s, where we’re at about a quarter, half an inch and even half an inch to three quarters of an inch uh, the maximum on screen here is 0.88. So just over three quarters of an inch there. So that’s quite a bit of freezing rain that’s enough to cause a a lot of impacts at this point. So we’re going to be watching that very closely, like i said, here’s the total snowfall guidance according to the european model, if you’re anywhere in the graze you’re expecting a dusting uh. If anything, if you’re in those lighter blues you’re at about two to six inches of snow, if you’re in the purple shades you’re at about six to ten in the pinks we’re at about ten to twenty, and then we can see those pastel, colors uh, so there’s A variety of pastel colors there, it kind of crosses from pink to almost a grayish or sorry kind of like uh teal, to kind of a grayish color it’s hard to explain.
But you can see it for eastern nebraska and western iowa there that’s, where this model is showing 20 inches, plus a bullseye there, so we’re going to be watching that closely here’s the eastern extent of it. So you can see that eastern edge looks a lot weaker than originally anticipated. The european model has been trending at this for quite a while uh, so that’s, a good job done by the european model. That appears let’s, take a look at the gfs model and it’s. Just a bit further north, we mentioned that is the furthest north model. At this point, also, as you can see, uh upstate new york, we get a lot of lake effect, enhanced snowfall uh with those pinks showing up so 10 inches plus for the finger lakes. Regions of new york carrying that eastward almost towards the catskills as well, then, as we take a look at that canadian model it’s kind of in between it, keeps those lighter amounts in the eastern united states just like the european model, and it keeps those heavier regions Out west in very similar regions, all right now here’s my official snowfall forecast and, as you can see, we have a dusting to three inches of snow expected throughout all of these white regions. Now, for the lighter blues, we expect three to six inches of snow for all these regions. Then, in these darker blues we have two of these regions. We have six to ten inches of snow expected so nebraska down through kansas, and then we take that eastward through northern missouri southern iowa and that does cross over into illinois a bit as well.
And then we see that lake effect enhanced band that carries through portions of eastern ohio straight through into western and central pennsylvania. There that’s, where i think we will get six to ten inches of snow and then we even have this kind of magenta shade that’s, where we’re expecting 10 to 15 inches of snow for kansas, nebraska, iowa, missouri and through illinois. All right now for our confidence. Tab i’m remaining at a four with this one, honestly guys, we see a little bit of a difference in the location with the models. My confidence is not reached a five yet honestly, uh the models are just disagreeing a little bit too much for my comfort level. At this point, so we’re remaining out of four, which is just above 50 percent confidence. Now, for today’s comment of the day, i asked you guys, which state do you think will see the most snowfall and donna williams said i’m going with iowa hit us with your best shot, and i really do think. Southern iowa is probably the bullseye at this point. For this storm, if not uh, possibly northern missouri or potentially even kansas or nebraska, but somewhere out, there is where i have the bullseye hitting anyway for today’s patron highlight of the day. I want to thank you all for supporting the channel, but especially our platinum, patrons sebastian, tao john benbenick, james weed dovey nagel, alan balemo, adam s, larry lepan, donna, carnes cameron, marshall and aiden mattis alongside our diamond patrons bill roberts, alan sherry, marcus, connolly, noah harley mike Michael codelessa, michael buell, terry curtis, cat bite, charles stinnett, helen manhart, it’s, jay, cindy klein, alicia davis, mark j, luke, fellago, garys and john quilisi.
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