We have an update on the apple car situation, news from giga texas, a couple things on spacex, one of which may be relevant to tesla and some other news as well. Quick look at the stock despite the relatively strong macro environment today, with the nasdaq finishing up, 1.2 percent tesla did finish down 0.6 percent to 849.99, all right so we’re going to start off today with a couple of rumors. First up on the tesla semi. This is coming over from twitter from the account run by sawyer merritt. I don’t know sawyer, but he does definitely follow tesla very closely. So he is saying that for a few weeks, he’s been in contact with a source from a us tesla supplier that supplies certain parts for the other models that hassle has and that he has some info based on that about the tesla semi. I would again note that this is just a rumor and even sawyer here says to take this with a grain of salt. That being said, he says the supplier began working with tesla in q4 on semi related things, and apparently they have a decent amount of information. On the tesla semi, so starting off with location, they’re, saying that the body of the semi will be produced in fremont, but final assembly will take place either in giga nevada, if it’s 2021 or in 2022, at gigatexas. As for timeline, they are looking for release candidates in may this year, pilot production in july and the start of full scale production in august.
As for volume, the rumored production rate target for the end of 2021 would be 100 per week and then for the end of 2022 500 per week, with the total production targets for 2021 being 2500, 2022, 10, 000, 2023 and beyond 25 000 with full production. Then ramping up to eventually 50 000 per year. The other production rumor here is that european production should start by 2023.. So again, just rumors take it with a grain of salt all that stuff. But i would find this timeline to be relatively plausible. I think the one piece here that doesn’t necessarily add up is that targeted 100 per week by the end of 2021 being combined with the 2500 volume production goal for the entire year of 2021. If volume production is supposed to start in august, that only leaves about 21 22 weeks left in the year, so even if they were at 100 per week, the entirety of that time frame that would only be about 2 200 semis produced. That is, of course, below the 2500 total build projection that is in this rumor as well. Now, because this information is from a supplier, maybe that makes sense. It’D still be a little weird to mix those things, but maybe tesla’s saying hey we’re, going to try to build 100 per week by the end of the year. But you should still give us 2 500 parts for 2021 just in case, but that logic then falls a little bit apart when we look at the 2022 number, because that actually fits much better with those rumored production rates where end of 2021 is 100 per week, And end of 2022 is 500 per week, so you’re starting the year at 5, 000 per year, ending the year at 25, 000 per year and projecting a total yearly output in between there at 10 000 per year.
That seems reasonable and definitely not like over ordering from a supplier like that, 2021 number would seem to indicate. So i wouldn’t go as far as saying that completely discredits these rumors, but it definitely gives me a little bit of pause anyway. If the projections are in the ballpark 2 500 units this year would be about 500 million dollars in revenue assuming most of these end up being founders, editions, which are 200 000 and would probably use somewhere between two to two and a half gigawatt hours of batteries. The problem with that is that revenue per battery is relatively low. There that’s only about 200 225 dollars per kilowatt hour, something in that ballpark, depending on how big the batteries actually are in the semi versus in tesla’s other vehicles they’re getting more like 650 to a thousand dollars per kilowatt hour, even in energy storage, they’re, probably getting More like 400 to 500. So when you are battery constrained, the semi doesn’t make a lot of sense unless you’re, using it internally and generating cost savings from it. Even then, that’s, probably a little bit questionable or if you’re, able to capture additional revenue and margin through software via autonomy with tesla now feeling like battery production is on the verge of ramping. Up significantly and autonomy is getting closer, makes sense that we’re finally seeing some action there for the semi anyway. As for the 2022 numbers, if tesla did 10 000 semis in 2022, that’d be about 2 billion in revenue and somewhere around the ballpark of 9 gigawatt hours of batteries, depending on where that final battery size comes in all right.
Moving on in the rumor mill, we’ll bring our attention back to the apple car, which we’ve been talking about over the last few weeks. Cnbc last evening reported that apple is close to finalizing a deal with hyundai kia to manufacture an apple branded autonomous vehicle at the kia assembly plant in west point. Georgia sources tell cnbc sources also say that apple wants to control both the software and the hardware. So this would be a truly apple branded car, not apple software, going into a hyundai or kia vehicle cnbc, writes quote the so called apple car, which is being developed by a team at apple, is tentatively scheduled to go into production. In 2024, though, people familiar with the talks between apple and hyundai kia, say the eventual rollout could be pushed back unquote. They also note that no agreement has been finalized yet and that apple could still work with another automaker completely or work with another automaker. In addition to hyundai kia, so only a couple new tidbits there, basically apple’s close to finalizing this deal and that they want to control both the software and the hardware that has added to previous reports that if this were to happen, the targeted production for 2024 would Be somewhere around 100 000 units, eventually ramping up to about 400 000 units per year from that factory, so there certainly seems to be a lot of smoke here. There’S, definitely conversations happening at the minimum. I’Ve said before.
I’Ll be really surprised if we do end up seeing an apple car this decade, that train of thought hasn’t really stemmed from doubting that apple is interested, but more so just doubting the fact that apple can get to a place where they feel like the product is Good enough and competitive enough to actually want to launch it, so this doesn’t necessarily change my feelings around that, but with all these rumors the last couple of months, it looks like maybe apple’s a little bit farther along down the path of giving it a shot than What i had suspected it’s, not something that really concerns me as a tesla shareholder, because i think tesla at that point in time, is going to be just on a completely different level, especially considering that, even if this does happen best case it’s looking like 2024. But the reality is it’s, probably gon na end up being even later than that anyway. We’Ll continue to keep an eye out for any more news on that situation. All right next up here and pretty relevant to a conversation we had yesterday about the amount of equipment that was there or not there. In giga berlin, today we’ve got a new drone flyover video from a gigatexas via terrafactory texas, youtube channel, and they happen to spot some equipment being shipped in. That seems like it’s, probably production robots. So this isn’t the first equipment that we’ve seen show up at kika texas.
There have previously been reports of tesla, seemingly shipping in some of the casting equipment, but always exciting. To see more of that stuff come in and gigatexas appears to continue to progress very rapidly. Tesla in the q4 earnings report showed us photos three months ago and today, and i think these multiple drone videos that we have every single day kind of numb us to the progress that the tesla’s making. But when you look at it on a three month time scale, you can really see how dramatically and rapidly things are changing there in texas all right next year. I want to briefly shift over to spacex and then we’ll come back for one more thing in the automotive space. But this first piece of news from spacex, i think, is relevant to tesla, and that is that reportedly richard lee, the senior director of treasury at spacex attended the microstrategy bitcoin conference for corporations yesterday. So microstrategy is a business analytics. Data mobility company and their co founder and ceo, michael saylor, is very bullish. On bitcoin has invested a significant part of microstrategy’s balance sheet into bitcoin. They actually just bought about 10 million more earlier this week and their total position now in bitcoin is worth about 2.6 billion dollars. So michael saylor and elon musk had exchanged a couple of tweets about bitcoin, maybe a week or two ago, so it’s very interesting to see now spacex treasurer attend this conference. I definitely feel like this is something that elon is considering if they want to push any of their balance sheet, whether it’s, spacex or tesla, into bitcoin, and, as i said before, i wouldn’t be surprised if that happens sometime in the next 12 months stuff like this, I think just makes that look more likely.
Would it be a big part of their balance sheet? Probably not, but given the fact that tesla doesn’t have a lot of hedges anywhere else, it might not be a bad idea to hedge some of their exposure to us cash with a position in bitcoin anyway. The other quick spacex news last night spacex successfully completed another starlink mission, this one with a little bit of extra notoriety, because the booster was turned around from flying just 27 days. Prior spacex also has another starlink launch coming up on sunday february: 7th at 4, 31 a.m. Eastern time, 1, 31 a.m. Pacific time all right, last couple of quick things here to wrap up the day are on volkswagen. The first one was sent over by a listener and volkswagen is offering an ideation challenge, with a prize of ten thousand dollars for external members, to submit ideas around innovative business models for volkswagen. So on one hand, i guess good for volkswagen for creatively. Looking for new ideas, but on the other hand, do you really need some sort of ideation challenge. I mean it’s, ten thousand dollars, so it’s literally nothing to volkswagen. So i guess why not, but it was kind of interesting to see that and i don’t know maybe one of our listeners can actually end up winning. It looks like there’s at least a ten thousand dollar five thousand dollar and one thousand dollar prize, and only like 440 people have entered so far.
So i don’t know i’ll put the link for that in the show notes and if you win, let me know. Lastly, then, here just some images that were shared over on reddit by user core today of the vw id six. This was apparently shared by the chinese ministry of industry and information technology. This, i guess, is supposed to end up being the production version of the id rooms concept and well, as it usually goes, ends up looking nothing like the concept, all right so that’s, where we’ll leave it for today. As always, thank you for listening make sure you subscribe and sign up for notifications. You can also find me on twitter at tesla, podcast and i’ll, see you tomorrow for the friday february 5th episode of tesla daily.