Texas, Power outage, Energy jected icestorm not forecast to bring as much ice as the 1997 icestorm

Storm we’ve been talking about when some folks were out of power for almost a week, we’re crossing our fingers that it will not be that bad. This time around chief meteorologist, patrick vaughn, is in the storm tracker center tonight. Keeping a really close eye on the latest and patrick. You have new forecast models that show where the ice may be worse, yeah we’re going to get to that and it’s showing upwards of maybe two thirds of an inch. So that would be less than what we saw in 1997.. The other good news is that we don’t expect this to be a three day event. As far as continuing seeing three days of freezing rain over the area like it was in 1997.. I think this is going to be about 12 to maybe 15 hours, and then it moves out as far as any additional precipitation, but still it’s the cold afterwards. That will keep the ice on the ground over at the horseman’s western store, 35 degrees. Right now on the roofing 911 skycam network, so again a few showers, maybe a little bit of freezing drizzle up in the lakes area coming up saturday night, maybe in the morning, but we’re talking very iffy. But one thing is for sure it’s going to get colder. This weekend, then monday looks like the potential for a crippling ice storm with power, outages and icy roads across southeast texas and then the coldest weather in maybe 60 years possible, uh coming up on tuesday morning with the icy roads.

Persisting and again you got to take care of those pipes, plants, pets and people be careful in this. This is going to be a serious weather concern coming up on monday, so again, crippling ice storm anywhere from a third, maybe upwards of uh. Maybe three quarters of an inch, so that is less than what we saw in 1997. once you start getting up to three quarters of an inch to an inch, an inch and a quarter that’s when you start really having widespread power outages and right now i told You this was going to change and it already has – and this is showing a stripe roughly from liberty, volta silsby kirbyville back over in towards burkeville half an inch to maybe three two thirds of an inch of rain of ice. I should say lesser amounts towards the triangle, but that doesn’t mean we’re not going to have concerns here in the triangle, and these numbers could go up still because these miles are going to change until we go on into the event sunday night regardless. It does appear that we will start off with rain transitioning to all freezing rain and sleet by morning. Pink is freezing rain and sleet. This is snow, freezing rain and sleet. Otherwise, why freezing rain is because, once the flakes come out of the clouds they hit? This warm layer melt and at the surface there’s a thin layer of cold air. That means everything will be coated in ice as those raindrops re freeze over the area.

Now, as we go towards the end of the event coming up, maybe monday noon into monday to 3 o’clock in the afternoon, what’s going to happen is that warm layer shrinks and more cold air. It widens or becomes deeper. So that means those raindrops. They come out of the cloud and then encounter that warm layer. They melt that deeper layer means more time to fall through the thicker or deeper layer of cold air at the surface and they farm into maybe bbs or what we call sleet across the area. Otherwise, temperatures continue to trend downward for tuesday we’re now going 14. As far as that in beaumont, that would be the coldest in since 1962, it could be 1819 over towards bridge city and even port, arthur just incredible 9. 10. 11. 12 up towards the lakes area, everything shaded in white. Do you know what county you live in? You should, if you don’t otherwise here’s the wind chills coming up on friday. I should say monday around 1 p.m. With that storm, on going freezing rain, falling temperatures low to mid 30’s winds, gusting 20 to 25 miles an hour. Yes, 6. 11. 13. 16. Those are going to be our wind chills coming up monday afternoon as of right now there are no advisories watches or warnings in our area. Now chambers and liberty are under a winter storm watch. I expect watches warnings or an advisory to be placed, probably a watch or advisory tomorrow across our area, probably a winter weather advisory, nothing on radar right now, but it is chilly with wind chills in the mid 20s to below freezing in around 30 degrees.

Tonight we expect temperatures to come on down to around freezing. This is iffy may not occur, okay, and if it does it’s going to be light, i don’t think it’s going to be any issues as far as traveling in the morning, but i do think we’ll get around freezing in the lakes and into the middle 30s. In the triangle tomorrow, this model is extremely cold. I could agree with maybe the upper 30s in the lakes to lower 40s in the triangle because of the lack of precip tomorrow choppy seas tomorrow around two to four feet in your coastal marine forecast. We’Ll see north winds at 15 to 20. cold tonight. Near freezing are thereabouts in the lakes to the mid 30s triangle tomorrow, upper 30s to near 40 in the lakes to the lower to middle 40s in the triangle saturday, night 20 to 30 percent coverage of maybe some light freezing rain drizzle up in the lakes. Sunday, 35, your low high of 44. sunday night through about two three o’clock in the afternoon: freezing rain in a crippling ice storm freezing rain and sleet high, maybe 34.. We don’t get rid of that coming up tuesday morning, it’s going to be on the ground. Hopefully we get above freezing tuesday or it’s going to stay on the ground and the ice and then and uh be on the trees and be on the ground, but we’re going 14 here in beaumont. That would be historically cold and then i’m going to still stick to my guns and go north of the triangle.

As far as any freezing rain, sleet or snow, maybe up towards the lakes area as round two hits, and then we get to go back down into the mid 20s by friday of next week. Patrick you were on facebook live, i think, for like 30 minutes earlier. This evening a lot of questions came in. I was just reading through some of the comments. Uh people are really concerned, obviously about their pipes. I mean, and at this point you know we were thinking 20 and now you start thinking 14 15 serious business you’re going to have damage you’ve got to take care of those pipes, so let them drip a little bit drip them periodically. The fire department does not like you to drip them; they want you to cut your water out, because if everybody in beaumont or every town drips their pipes, what happens? That lowers the water pressure and that makes it hard to fight fires. So there you go, certainly wrap your pipes, no doubt about that and i’ve seen some reports tonight. You may even want to check your pipes in your attic if you know that we’re getting to the point where it’s going to be that cold yeah everything goes up out of your uh out of your mane and goes up into your attic from your water heater Across the house to the bathroom you know, it’s, you got a lot of pipes upstairs in your attic and that’s.

What you’re gon na have to watch for could have a mess on our hands. Can we pull back up the seven day, one more time the question that i’d seen was: how long do you realistically think will be below freezing okay if we start off at maybe four or five o’clock in the morning monday and say we don’t get above freezing On monday afternoon, that’s still a possibility right, then you’re, looking at 24, maybe 36 hours, possibly potentially. If we don’t get above freezing on tuesday, then then finally wednesday. So it just depends on uh. The afternoon highs coming up monday and tuesday, which are still debatable and could go colder and trend colder. Last question: i know we don’t have a lot of time. The modeling right now is showing the greater ice accumulation north of the triangle correct um. You underscored that. Could change absolutely you know you’re you’re talking? We still got 48 hours before this commences. So you know these models are going to continue to get more data in and they’ll be able to hone down uh the uh the ice accumulations as we get into maybe sunday morning. We ought to have a really good, clear idea, whether it’s going to be lakes or triangle. Well, patrick. We appreciate all the insight and folks we hope you stay with 12 news on air online.

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