We have a lot to talk about here. An enhanced risk has been given by the storm prediction center for alabama georgia and florida regarding both strong winds and tornadoes. Slight risk is in effect for parts of south carolina, georgia, florida and alabama, and we also have that slight risk extending into north carolina just a tad there right off the coast, as this low pressure system is going to be moving out to see that marginal risk. Extending all the way past, orlando very near that lake at lake okeechobee down in florida as well and extending as far north as nearly the north carolina virginia border when it comes to the tornado threat. A 10 chance of tornadoes has been given by the storm prediction center, with a hatch, significant area being denoted by them as well. This is where there is an enhanced risk for those ef2 to ef5 strong tornadoes. The conditions are definitely in place for that today. When it comes to strong winds, we also have a 30 chance significant threat, um equivalent with an enhanced risk as well 30 percent chance of winds over 60 miles per hour within 25 miles of a point and again that hatched area meaning there’s a 10 or greater Chance of wind gusts over 75 miles per hour within 25 miles of any point in that 30 risk area, here’s the hail probabilities, five percent – all across the board for hail hail, is by far the lowest threat here, but still it’s, not non existent.
Some pretty large hail stones of over an inch can still do some serious damage. Some of these storms are going to have the updrafts to still be able to produce significant amounts of hail. Well when it comes to the storm’s expected time of arrival here’s where the storms are right now, that’s the 1 p.m area. There that’s that red line as we head into the orange line. This is going to be around 4 p.m, so storms are going to be traversing the florida panhandle and by 1am they’re, going to be out of here as they head southward they’re, going to weaken significantly the prime time for this in particular. Looking like it’s going to be from 4 p.m, to 7 p.m. Here’S, the storm mode we’re, going to start with supercells large, hail, flooding, damaging winds and tornadoes are all threats with these supercells it’s, going to be a broken line of supercells at first that’ll merge into a linear mode that bringing large, hail flooding, damaging winds and isolated Tornadoes this means that the tornado threat will be highest at the beginning of this event, around four o’clock and will morph into a strong wind threat. As the night goes on well here’s, a mesoscale discussion that’s come out recently a severe slash, tornado risk will gradually increase into this afternoon. A weather watch will eventually be required likely between 1830 utc and 19 utc or around 1 30 to 2 o’clock eastern time. This will likely be a tornado watch.
Force 13 united states will be covering this on all of its outlets, here’s the severe weather overview for today you can see high confidence in this event and again in an enhanced risk that orange impact potential and again you can see the map down there very clearly That enhanced risk again for georgia, alabama and florida here are the locations specifically tallahassee and panama city and an enhanced risk for tornadoes with tallahassee, dolphins, panama, city and right florida and alabama all in the enhanced risk for strong winds. When it comes to tornadoes. We have that slight risk in place for um areas like jacksonville, savannah and gainesville, that slight risk is also in place for winds and then rally tampa and orlando all within a marginal risk, should still be keeping an eye on the weather. In summary, strong winds and tornadoes are a threat in the southeast today, and it needs to be kept an ion closely, looking like peak times going to be around 4 pm to 7 pm. So what do you do in different situations? Well, if you’re in a severe thunderstorm watch which could be issued today, that means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms. You should be keeping an eye on the sky, making sure you’re prepared when it comes to tornado watches very similar. This is the more likely of the two watches to be issued. Tornado watch means the conditions are favorable for the development of severe weather, including tornadoes damaging winds and large hail close to the watch area, while severe weather may not be imminent.
Persons should remain attentive because there can be rapidly changing weather conditions. These are going to be moving in fast folks. Flooding is also going to be a concern with this flash flood watches are likely in fact, stay tuned to noaa’s weather radio, tv outlets and national weather service for the latest information and seek higher ground immediately. If, within a flash flood warning, if you’re in a severe thunderstorm warning, you want to take shelter immediately, go to the lowest level of a sturdy building, you can you want to make sure you’re protecting yourself from flying debris, staying away from windows, same thing with the Tornado warning you want to take cover immediately, take shelter on the lowest floor of a building in the most interior room of the house, or building bring a helmet with you to protect your head. You can also bring pillows blankets. Things like that to protect the rest of your body from flying debris. Do not wait to take shelter if you’re within a tornado. If this could be a very dangerous situation and after you’ve had it underground. You want to make sure that you’re avoiding windows, preferably be in a room with some plumbing, something that you can hang on to in the event that the tornado does get to that room. What are you doing a flash flood warning? You want to move to higher ground as quickly as you can and you don’t want to drive through flooded waters.
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