If you like, detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos, so back in january, we had our sudden stratospheric warming event, uh, which warmed the stratosphere above the north pole and that caused the polar vortex to move out Of the be displaced and moved out of the way, so in the beginning of january we had the polar vortex shift towards europe and asia, and that brought that really big snowstorm to madrid. Then, in the beginning of february that same stratospheric warming event shifted that polar vortex down towards north america towards us, and we saw that event take place and it created a very active storm pattern. For the month of february, where we saw multiple snowstorms come through the united states and we’re still dealing with winter storm viola as we speak today and the very cold polar vortex arctic air that’s been decimating texas and it’s a power grid. Since winter storm yuri passed through, but now that we’re heading towards the end of february on the left, you can see how the polar vortex and the stratosphere looks today and on the right is how it’s going to look towards the end of february. The beginning of march – and you can see that it’s pretty much back to its original normal shape. So what that means is uh. You can see on our arctic oscillation observation forecast uh at the top of that screen.
You see the red squiggly lines uh. We are gon na be in a positive phase, which means we’ll have a very strong ao, which means we’re going to see less arctic air intrusion into the united states. That means the jet stream’s going to be stronger, there’s going to be a and with a stronger jet stream. You won’t see those waves in the atmosphere which creates that active pattern will have more of a zonal pattern, so the cold air will be locked up towards the poles and we’ll, see the united states gradually warm back up to normal and then above normal temperatures. But you can see that’s going to be slightly different in across the united states, the ao it will be positive. The nao is also going to be positive, so that means it’s going to be warm and warmer in the east. As we end uh february – and you can see the pna – the pacific north american oscillation that’s going to be going negative. So that means it’s going to get cooler in the west and i’m going to show you that later in this video. So with that positive ao right now, you can see our polar vortex. This is an average over the next five days is actually going to leave the central united states and push its way eastward uh to the eastern half of the united states. For this weekend and into early next week, and then we’re eventually going to see it shift back to the north and we’re going to build a ridge in the eastern half united states and a trough in the western half of the united states, which you can see Here, by the time we get to february february 23rd through february 28th, which would be next week from tuesday uh to the end of until uh sunday, you’ll see uh the ridge building in the east and our trough, building in the west and that’s going to allow The warm the east to warm up and the west to cool down and that will continue into the first week of march as well as you can see here so here, we’re, going to show the average temperature anomaly over the next five days and what those temperatures Look like on one of those specific days, so here we see today through february 23rd, and we have that polar vortex over the central, united states and that’s going to shift eastward throughout the weekend and into early next week.
And you can see what those temperatures are like on the right side of your screen, where we have temperatures in dallas, like 26 degrees up in this north central plains, we’re at zero to single digits for high temperatures, but by the time we get through that. Second, five day phase, you can see that warm up is starting to occur in the east as we build that upper level ridge and that cool down in the west from that upper level. Trough uh it’s not going to be noticeable in the beginning, uh, but you’ll, see texas, will eventually defrost itself from this arctic air and will get above freezing this weekend and then back into the 60s and 70s. By the time we get to next week, as you can see on the right of your screen on tuesday, much of texas will be in the low 60s at this point and then, when we get towards the uh end of february into the first week of march. We’Ll see that continued warm above average temperatures for the east coast, united states, eastern half nights, i should say – and the western half of the united states will be cooler, but not not arctic cold they’ll just be somewhat colder. As you can see, the darkest blues are only indicating about four degrees below average and that’s, mostly for the northern rockies from montana, wyoming and idaho, and that would only be temperatures that are only like in the teens and low 20s, which that’s nothing that that those Areas haven’t handled before so they’ll be okay and then in the eastern half of the united states, we’ll start to get that uh early spring thaw.
As you can see, we’ll have temperatures in the from texas and the southeast warming up into the 60s. The ohio valley will war and mid atlantic will warm up into the low 40s, and the cold will really be locked up to the northern portions of the country of the the country where you can see the midwest and the upper sections of the northeast and new England that’s, where you will see the colder temperatures that could support any snow that comes through towards the end of the month and speaking of storms. Our next potential uh snowstorm will be coming through the midwest and into the northeast early next week, but because we’re going to see those temperatures starting to rise, the snow is mostly going to be located around the great lakes and then into the interior sections of the Northeast, as you can see here on both the european and gfs models, it’s mostly going to be for the mountains, as the temperatures start to get higher and away from the freezing temperatures we’ve seen the over the past couple of weeks and then we’ll close out february. With another potential snowstorm, the gfs is showing it being much further south. I don’t believe that’s going to be the case because we will see a ridge building in the east, and this is saying there’s going to be a trough which i don’t believe is actually going to be the case. The ridge is most likely going to be taking over and that would indicate more rain for the eastern half united states with the snow, mostly located in the interior section of the northeast and mountains.
Thank you for watching this video. If you liked it, please hit the like button and leave a comment. Please share this video with your family and friends on social media and, if you’re new and, like detailed weather breakdowns hit the subscribe button and notification bell to get all of my upcoming videos.