Climate change, Polar vortex, Texas, Arctic Review: Arctic Temperature Amplification Influence on Polar Vortex Causing Severe Winter Weather

s um they’re. Still i just checked and there’s still over 300. 300. 000 homes without power, so that’s, probably you know about a million people or so you know, of course, at the peak of the power outage in texas. There was something like uh, four and a half million residences and if you take the average um family size, you know three. Three people per residence then uh three times, 4.5 million is uh 13.5 million people without power. So you know it’s been a very, very expensive catastrophe. You know terrible toll on people. You know right in the middle of a pandemic, so in this video i’m going to focus on the peer reviewed science paper, scientific understanding that we have on how the the jet streams are more marinal and we’re. Getting you know, troughs deep troughs, very, very high ridges, and this deep trough has been stuck over the us over north america and uh caused these extreme cold temperatures very, very far south and how you know abrupt climate change and the climate system. Signature is all over. This event, i’m, going to talk mostly about a paper that was published about a year ago. It’S called divergent consensuses on arctic amplification influence on mid latitude, severe winter weather. So the arctic warming is, of course much much faster than the rest of the planet and that’s, causing a decrease in the temperature gradient to the equator for lower latitudes, which is in causing the jet streams to slow down and become much wavier.

Now you know divergent consensuses, okay, so the devil’s always in the detail, but going back to basic principles. We have to look at why the jet stream exists in the first place. Okay, the jet stream exists in the first place, because there’s a temperature difference right. The poles are cold. The equator is warm that temperature difference, causes a pressure difference and that pressure difference causes a force, a pressure gradient force which causes the air to move. Now because the earth is rotating, you have this coriolis effect, which uh rotates things to the flex, things to the right, any moving, parcel or entity of air or object in the northern hemisphere. It gets deflected to the right because of the coriolis effect. Okay, so you have the air moving because of the pressure gradient deflected by the coriolis, and it gets concentrated up in these bands forming the the jet streams. Okay, so the jet streams exist because of that pressure, gradient and the rotation of the earth. Okay. So, as you warm the arctic greatly, you reduce that pressure gradient. Okay, so you have to change the jet streams, there’s, no other alternative, there’s, no other option that’s just from first principles: okay, so we’re seeing we’re clearly seeing that but i’m going to talk about what the science is saying, because this is very relevant to huge numbers Of people right from from this cold spell: okay, so uh, okay, so i’ve done two videos here so far.

So this is the third video in this series and i’ll, be. You know, of course, posting it it’ll be posted uh shortly after i finish filming it in twitter. Okay, so you know, i showed these diagrams here’s a dip of the jet stream over north america, strong persistent dip. I showed a movie. This is from tropical tidbits of how this is expected to clear out over time, but it’s not over yet, and this paper here um. This is a paper here, um which um i’m gon na discuss in great detail: um, okay, but first of all, just to remind you. So this is some some tweets from zach labe and uh a couple relevant things here. These are the temperature anomalies from month to month. You can see how you know september october november is the most severe. You know, then, the winter months or the most severe and less so in the summer in terms of the temperature anomalies – and i want to show you a couple things – this is the um. This is the zonal temperature, mean temperature anomaly, so the equator, the north pole, south pole, and it goes month to month. So what you can see here is you know if you look at these months here. Okay, we get tremendous tremendous um warming in the arctic relative to the equator, but it varies a lot from month to month and it’s most significant. You know in the um in the winter months, so just to keep that in mind.

Um in the last video i showed this image of the deep cold okay. This was a tweet from stefan door, so two competing effects influence our northern winters, global warming and increased polar air outbreaks due to stratospheric polar vortex disturbances. So when the polar vortex is disturbed, cold, air spills, deep south, okay, so that’s uh um in the long run number one winds, but our winters and winters are getting warmer, but in the short run we can get these massive cold outbreaks coming far south. So we’re. Seeing this so the the areas of southern texas experience colder temperatures in parts of alaska, okay, tremendous um, uh, latitudinal change in temperature over north america and here’s, the the dip of the jet stream and there’s some cluster analysis in one paper where this is a very Cold in this type of polar vortex states, this cluster so called cluster four very, very cold over north america and another type of cluster that commonly occurs very, very cold over eurasia, okay and there’s connections from something called causal effect network analysis which looks at the eurasia Snow cover the ural sea level, pressure, siberian sea level, pressure, the bear, the um, the uh, the ocean temperature in the kerosee and the. Where is it? The berenstay and the kerosee? Okay, we’re losing sea ice in those regions quicker and year round, and these areas are as warmer and that warming can set up conditions that distorts the jet stream.

That propagates, then from the jet stream, which is at the troposphere stratosphere interface up into the stratosphere, can break polar vortex with the sudden stratospheric warming, causing a breakup of the polar vortex and all this cold air spilling south over north america and into europe. Okay. So those are the sort of things that can occur. Um can occur, okay, so so uh, the brent kerose here, the arctic uh oscillation, the this is heat, flux, upward, velocity of air up and disturbing the polar vortex. So this study looks at all of the linkages between them: okay, to try to figure out what’s what’s happening what’s going on okay. So so this is the key paper divergent consensus on arctic amplification influence on mid latitude, severe winter weather, okay, so i’ll look at the diagram, so what we’re seeing is the models? This is the observations from re analysis, etc. So this is, this is in winter december january february. These are the this. Is the pressures or heights up through the atmosphere – and this is the trend of temperature rise per decade, 0.8 to 1 degree, kelvin or degrees celsius per decade here? So the the warming is highest near the surface in the arctic. You know north of 75 degrees, north latitude and also up here where the jet streams are okay near the top of the troposphere. So the warming is highest in those two places: the models um. These are various model and ensembles and they don’t show the observations they don’t.

They don’t get the observations, correct, okay, so that’s something to keep in mind so here’s, some of the the things that are going on. So this is in the warm sunlit season. This is in the arctic summer. Okay, so we’ve got the sun coming in there’s, a reduction of sea ice and snow cover, so there’s an increase, absorbed, solar radiation and also ocean heat storage. So the arctic is warming much much faster because it’s, a darker place, there’s, less sea ice and snow cover, so it’s absorbing heat, there’s, increased ocean heat storage, the downward surface, turbulent heat flux is higher because there’s less reflected up we’ve got these clouds and these increased Clouds reflect solar radiation in the summertime, but they at night they increase the downward infrared radiation. Okay, you also get ocean heat transport, so these are local effects in orange and purple. You get the long range effect you get ocean heat transport into the arctic and you also get warm moist air advecting, moving horizontally into the arctic by wave propagation from lower latitude. So whenever we have these strong, ridges and troughs deep troughs the strong ridges carry heat up into the arctic, the strong troughs bring heat away from the arctic. So we’re talking all about this massive cold spell over north america as far down as the gulf of mexico. Well, that represents a huge warming of the arctic, because all that cold air going down over north america is cold air that’s being removed from the arctic and replaced by warmer air, okay.

So the arctic’s warming like crazy and it’s, just being manifested in this loss of cold air down into deep uh, lower, latitudes, okay. So keep that in mind. Now in the in the cold dark season, okay, the ice has grown, but you’re still getting uh. You know you’re still getting you’ve got the clouds still now it’s dark, so the clouds are working. 24. 7.. You know it’s completely dark there’s, no sunlight they’re, not blocking sunlight, but they’re, keeping the infrared heat in the system in the winter and that inhibits the sea ice thickening. So the sea ice is not thickening and growing as quickly as it would because of these extra clouds and the extra moisture up in the system you’re still getting ocean heat transport into the arctic and you’re still getting these the jet streams, the rossby waves, the ridges Going deep high up into the arctic in the winter, so you get warm moist air advection into the arctic by wave propagation from lower atmosphere and i’ve talked about the ridges going all the way to the north pole, bringing the temperatures at the north pole above zero. In the deep darkest parts of the winter okay, so these are the effects that are that are going on. This is an excellent diagram and this is some of the different locations, so temperature anomalies and different types of regional things where we have the brent kerosey much warmer. Therefore, warm warm arctic, cold continents, warm ocean, cold continent, sort of thing and other different uh spatial relationships, but i want to get down to this here, which is key.

So this is what the observational studies are showing. Okay. So before we had uh the the huge arctic amplification so number of years ago, we had a cold arctic and warmer continents. Okay, the cold arctic we’d have a strong polar vortex up here. A strong low pressure, mostly zonal flow, the cold air would be confined up to the arctic. Now what’s happening is we’re getting a much warmer arctic, and that is that warm air is going up and it’s weakening the polar vortex and then we’re getting the cold air spilling out away from the arctic to lower lower latitudes. Okay. So as we disrupt the polar vortex, the cold air spills out and we’re, seeing you know this type of thing that we have in the u.s and texas, also in europe, okay. So this is what we’re seeing and the models don’t actually account for that the models are. Are haven’t figured that out. Yet this is what we have with arctic uh amplification, the warm air you know get in the arctic then spreads out, but we still have a cold colder, vort polar vortex. So here you get more horizontal flow of warm air and you get the the air. The warm air coming in from the oceans etc to heat the arctic, so the models so keep in mind. The models are showing this sort of thing here here and here, and this is what we’re actually seeing in the observation. Tremendous warming at the low near the surface and also up here disrupting the polar vortex causing the air to spill out of the arctic.

In. In onto the continent, now there’s a couple other uh so remember, this is just a map showing the kerosene, the brent sea, where we’re losing most of the sea ice in this area is getting huge warming, and this is these: are the connections uh there’s there’s? A these papers are referenced by ram’s door, but then, when there’s, a weak, vortex, we’re we’re getting longer and longer cold snaps.

What do you think?

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