If we start to roll over and sell down, sell off so interesting picture here, the dow was actually only up 36 points for this last week, very tight little doji type candle. The trading range was 362 points, and that is the tightest trading range for a week. In over a year on the dow industrials s, p 500 has some. You know similar situation in here. When i look at the the pattern i’m seeing from a year ago, you see the divergence. A different type of divergence picture has developed here, uh off over the last uh. You know six months or so, but here in the last few weeks, we’re seeing a similar type pattern to what happened back in february a year ago. So watching this pretty closely, the spx was down 28 points for the uh for the week now the cues look at this bearish candle. This is a weekly shot. Okay, so why do i say it’s bearish, because this is what we call a bearish engulfing candle where the body of the candle this week completely engulfs the previous week’s body in here now. I need continuation for this to happen. Ideally, a close down below the body of this candle uh next week, so we’ll see how if we get that kind of follow through and that’s what we’re. Looking for let’s take a look at the elliott wave picture. I think that there’s a decent chance that the the nasdaq 100 topped out on february 16th, tuesday, with the high so we’re, going to need to see that high hold.
If that is truly the case, and what are we looking at, as this comes down i’m looking at the hourly viewing here, i think we had five little waves for a first wave down, which is exactly what you need to see. You need five waves in the direction uh that you want to be heading and now we’ve got a little corrective pattern. It’S possible that this pattern is uh could is maybe not finished. Yet it could be more of a zigzag but we’ll watch and see if we continue to come on down here and sell off that’s what i’m expecting as part of this overall structure overall pattern here on the queues all right, i want to take a look at Several commodity index commodity instruments this week, so let’s start off here with oil, okay usl. This is the low back here in april 2020. Remember when oil went negative, i think it was like minus 40. They let the futures contract go negative. I don’t even know you could do that. I don’t think a lot of people knew that that was yeah. You could do that and it was pretty amazing, but this is the low here on usl, which this is united states 12 month oil and since that point, we’ve had a pretty nice little rally and i’m counting it as if it’s an impulse move. Okay. Now for this impulse move to hold, you know this wave four, which is what i’m expecting.
I think the third wave may have peaked out in here. Okay – and i i think that, because when i looked at the two hour chart, this looks like a nice little five wave move in here for the the fifth wave and i’ve got five waves, also on the structure in here for the third uh third minor wave. Let me go back to the daily chart. Let me zoom in actually i was on the weekly, i believe, yeah there we go that’s a little better, so i think there’s a pretty good chance that this topped out and i’m looking for probably more of a sideways move. Since we got a sharp uh corrective type of movement here for wave two here’s, the fibonacci retracements of four versus three, so this would be the zone i’d be looking at. But if this were to come down here, more severe break below the high of wave one then i’d have to sit back and say something else is going on and that’s. Why? I have an alternate count that says this could be an a b c of an x x wave and that really there is more corrective pattern to come. Like you know, we had w x y and then we could have an x and then z. Another big corrective pattern down: okay right now, i’m leaning into the impulse wave to the upside looking for five waves and again when i, when i do this – and i show the wave count up here unless i specifically say i think this is where wave five is Going this is just the path forward: okay, i’m, not saying wave four is going to end here.
You know this is a pullback zone. But how long is this going to take? I don’t know i don’t know if it’s going to take this long, this long or whatever, but this is the path that i’m looking for on usl all right, let’s, take a look at copper: okay: this is united states, copper, it’s, not a heavily traded etf, but At least it kind of mirrors what’s, going on with copper. The the low in here was march 21st, the week of march 21st, 2020.. Since that time, we’ve had a extremely strong impulse move to the upside, and it has actually become stronger than i even thought. It was going to be let’s. Take a look at the daily chart, here’s what i’m looking at. I think that we are still in a third intermediate wave. I don’t feel that that is really completed yet i’m. Looking for five waves up in here with the minor wave five, so this continues to push higher we’re, getting a lot of volume kicking in and we’re, not getting any kind of divergence on the rsi so watching this, and then i think what what’s going to happen Once we complete this, then we’ll get into a little more corrective pattern, type of thing again. This is just a placeholder out here. This is not any kind of projection, or anything like that. I am focused on this and right now: copper continues to look very strong to the upside let’s.
Take a look at lithium. Now talk about a commodity that’s. Looking strong, oh my gosh! This is the low back over here in august of 2015.. I think we are in a big, you know, bullish super cycle, move in here type of move on lithium and, of course this is tied to the the batteries for electric vehicles and right now, we’re in a very strong impulse wave to the upside. I don’t believe this third wave is complete, yet i think there’s more to come and then we’ll get a corrective fourth wave back down in here and then one more thrust up to complete the third primary wave. So you know a lot i think more to come. Look at the volume that’s kicking in we’re, getting very strong here on the uh on the rsi in terms of the strength of the move, the momentum. So that is the picture on lithium, very strong move, and i think it looks to me like there’s more to come in here all right, let’s, take a look at uh let’s see the next thing i want to take a look. I want to look at freeport, mcmoran, freeport, mcmoran, copper and gold incorporated look at this move, that’s going on up three dollars and 35 cents on friday, i’ll make sure i’ve got a daily uh that’s, the daily view, and now, if we pull in over here, look At the weekly view, it was up 6.26 for the week closing at 37.
49 cents. This thing is just going right through the roof and uh. When i take a look at the elliott wave picture on here, let’s see how that looks and here’s what i’ve got now. You know that’s interesting, that’s kind of similar to almost similar to uh to lithium in terms of what we had, and you know definitely in a third uh primary wave to the upside don’t believe it’s complete. Yet, looking at the intermediate waves in here now, i took a real hard look on this. I do think we had an extended wave one and then here’s the five waves up for the wave three, and so given that wave three is shorter than wave one and wave three can never be the shortest wave wave. Five, then, must not be longer than wave. Three, because then, if it was, it would make three the shortest wave so that’s the constraint that we get. So if i look at five versus three that would say that if this, if i’ve got this correct, wave, five should not go above 54.73 in here. Okay – and i am using uh the semilog just because of the depth of the scale that we’ve got in here so uh. When you have that kind of range, it makes all the sense in the world to use a semi log scale, all right, so that’s that’s the way i’d be looking at this i’m. Looking for five waves, don’t think this is finished.
It could continue to push all the way up here into the low 50s and we closed again at 37.49. So right now, freeport, mcmoran, copper and gold is going straight up. We’Ll see if we can continue all right, that’s it for this weekend. If you felt like the video was helpful, give it the thumbs up if you’re not a subscriber hit that little subscriber button there for the channel. If you’d, like more of this kind of information head over to joehentges.net joehentges.net check out the website and the membership, everyone have a great rest of the weekend and if you’re in texas, i sure hope you got your power back. We finally got ours back on wednesday. We were off and on from monday morning and it was pretty bad on monday and into tuesday. But since wednesday morning we finally had steady power and fortunately i didn’t have any water pipes break in the house. So got very lucky. I know there’s a lot of people who had it a heck of a lot worse than i did so hope. Everyone is doing a lot better.