Let’S have a look at the chart first, so uh looking at the market. Here again, we are red, so we’re, currently closing out the low of the day and uh for the weekly chart. Here we know that we got strong support at 385.5 uh that’s the year to watch for tomorrow. If we keep cutting so uh first weekly chart tells us the same second weekly chart tells us the same thing: 385.5 is the barrier for the bears to break, to get momentum to push it lower. As a reminder, we also got the monthly candle closing on friday. So on friday, we’re going to be closing out the week and the month most important level here for the weekly sorry for the monthly chart is also 3.85 385.85 to be a little bit more precise, so 385.85 is going to be that level right there and uh. If we don’t hold that again, 375 is going to be support here on the monthly chart on the weekly chart uh. If we were to push down, we got an uptrend here for roughly uh. How much is that for this week, we’re looking at roughly 379 so 379 is also a very important level on the hourly chart. So again, weekly and monthly. Both tell us that we are showing we’re seeing some rare signs, but no bearish confirmation. Yet, looking on the daily chart, it gets a little bit uglier. So again, higher time frames are going to give us more time, but the shorter time frames feed up to those higher time frames.
So what we see here on the daily chart is that we got a perfect rejection that’s what we got here, so we gap down pumped up, sold off closing with a that is not a sexy candle right, that’s, almost an it’s, an inverted hammer, basically uh. So again we got a perfect rejection here. The high of the day is 389.62 and the low from friday was uh. 389. Sorry, 389.55. So we filled the gap so technically uh we are able to go lower if that’s, what the that’s the direction we’re going to be taking here so uh, perfect rejection and when i noted the uh the weekend deep dive notes. Honestly, i don’t know um, i don’t know i would love to have clarity uh. The pressure is to the downside this week. We know that we got the stimulus bill vote on friday and we also got jay powell speaking tomorrow. So technically speaking, uh the daily chart. Doesn’T, look all that great i’m, not gon na lie rep a little bit in after average at 387.5, but it doesn’t. Look all that beautiful so sitting on your hands and doing nothing is was a good plan for today, all right. Looking at the rest of the s p, here again on the hourly chart, we can still note that we’re going down, so we were going up, started going flat and now we’re going down. So the big question here is: where will we close out on friday? If we keep sliding lower here so uh friday that’s the 25th oops, i actually have an extra day missing here, so we’re looking for the 26th and uh on the 26th here um that’s gon na be monday.
So here on friday, again, if we just ride this uh, this funnel lower uh, the the area where we’re gon na be hitting it uh, four o’clock on friday is pretty much like uh right at 385.5, like on this uptrend right here, that’s going to be 4pm On friday 385.79, as we noted on the weekend deep dive, so it’s, not looking all that great again looking here on the daily chart for spy, let me just make sure i got everything here: good uh scroll, that down a little bit again back. Testing 385 is good, but we got a hole there right. We can’t really afford to slide much more otherwise we’re going to be voiding. This last pattern right here, the sloppy w is a little bit of a concern as well, so flipping back to the hourly chart. Again, if we just ride down here, we just we just keep going down uh. We could also be as low as uh here’s uh monday at three, so how about uh friday at four friday at 4 pm 378., so again that 379 area on the weekly chart yeah? Well, we got ta. We can push down here to 378.. So 388. Sorry, 385.5 or 379. i don’t have the options. Chains snapped right now, so we’re gon na discount the options chains for today, just because uh. I think that the price action is more important than the options right now. So again, if we keep going down, 385.
5 is gon na, be the hurdle on friday. Looking on the five minute chart, we are still going down as well, so we got a uh channel lower here, hit the top at the bottom at the top at the bottom. At the top at the bottom, failure to hit the top that’s the most important thing here, so we actually got a rejection earlier and again for tomorrow, 386 is going to be a very important area. We can start cutting down into the 385 area if we don’t hold so buy the clothes tomorrow. We could be all the way down here at 385.5, so uh again we got to make sure we’re we’re, aware of the upside and the downside and uh that’s. Pretty much it so that takes care of the s p charting for today and uh. What we have in focus for tomorrow is gon na, be jay powell, so j pal is gon na, be giving congressional testimony tomorrow, starting at about 10 a.m. So about 60 minutes or one hour after the market opens up and uh he’s like i’m i’m personally, expecting him to be dovish and what’s. Interesting about this is that this comes before we get that stimulus vote on friday. So if jpel gives the all clear and he’s, probably gon na get grilled because he’s giving testimony so he’s gon na get grilled. The questions are gon na be uh, probably a little bit tougher than usual and uh that’s important that’s.
The most important thing for tomorrow. Uh fed sure powell speaking at 10 a.m. So is he going to add, bear fuel, or is he actually going to come back in and say you know what we remain accommodated we’re going to do what it takes to support the economy. Also got initial jobless claims coming on thursdays. So again, if we need another bear catalyst well, we got it right if this comes in bullish, maybe we get a bullish surprise, but i don’t know right. The i think it was robert kaplan today said that q1 data is likely going to remain remain bumpy. So if the data is bumpy, that’s, not very good, all right and then what do we have for warnings in terms of news? Big short investor michael bury says, the stock market is dancing on a nice edge drop me a comment. What do you think are we dancing on a nice edge? It kind of feels like it, and we know that michael bury was short, tesla and he’s having a good day today, after having a lot of lumps and a lot of losses, tesla is finally coming down. Pretty big drop too right, 8.5 that’s, a big drop on a. I think it was like an 800 billion dollar company uh, so that’s big right that’s like uh, that that hurts that hurts big time all right. Well, uh next thing we got to go through here is gon na, be an article we got from uh.
This is from cnbc. These warning signs suggest stocks are heading towards a correction. What do you think? Are we headed for a correction? Are we gon na go up or down into friday? What do you think we’re gon na get back above ‘0, or are we gon na hit that 385 and again, if you wouldn’t mind smashing the thumbs up, it goes a really long long way and the reason why i’m asking for a comment is because youtube loves Comments, so if we get comments on the video youtube is happy and they recommend our video more all right, um looks like i got ta log in here to view the pro article. So just give me a second as i log in and get that done, and then we’ll have a look at the article here. Other thing we got is uh. Hmm give me a second here all right: there we go cryptocurrency exchange, bitnance temporarily, suspends withdrawals of eth and ethereum based tokens due to high network congestion yeah. It kind of sounds like they’re turning into robin hood here right, oh geez and uh uh. Janet yellen also had comments today regarding uh, the fed is potentially gon na be looking to make their own coin, so huge power slide here. Right power drive power, slide, lower and uh. You won’t even note it here, but from the top, but look that’s a pretty big fade. We dropped by about 18 and uh that’s, a pretty big cut, so bouncing all the way back up here back above the relative lows.
What do you think uh elon musk said that these things are overvalued, don’t, believe, bitcoin and ethereum. What do you think right? Uh, the market’s getting increasingly spicy here all right. We got this article article we’ll go through now. These warning signs suggest stocks are headed towards a correction it’s, not a question of if but when the next meaningful market decline will occur. Several important market indicators are near extreme levels, and that means stocks could be headed for a correction says: cfra cfra, chief investment, strategist, sam stovall. What are the warning signs here? Let’S have a look through. Financials are actually at all time highs today, again so uh again, what’s very interesting is that energy uh again we saw a lot of uh junk stocks also rallying today, again uh cruise lines and uh airlines really had really had a really good day. Today. Have a look at that a little bit later in the show here, clocking in at about nine minutes, so i got ta start speeding up a little bit here, um what’s he talking about here in the past 25 years. The stocks market has corrected 11 times, meaning this has declined more than 10 percent. During these corrections, the high flying major sectors lost an average of 31.7 percent and the best performing sub in the sub industry has lost 43.9 compared to the average drop in the s. P of 23.8 um, the warning signs of a correction is coming along with sky high margin dead, which is at an all time high.
All right, um expect the hardest hit sectors and a correction could be those that have done the best over the past six months. That’S been uh tech right tech has done really really well here. Another extreme is in fact, that more than 90 percent of the s p 500 1500 – some industries traded above their 200 dma for an average of 15 weeks in a row, which is only the fourth time. This has happened in the last 25 years. Another warning sign is that all major sectors in the s p, except for healthcare, are trading at double digit premiums to their 20 year average price to earnings ratio for the s p itself, it’s at 37, and the sectors range from 12 to 93.. Tech is probably closer to that 93. stovall said the correction could come in price or time, meaning the market either sells often consolidates in a sideways move. In the past 25 years. The stock market is corrected 11 times, meaning that it has declined more than 10 percent. A correction is 10, a bear market is 20 um. Car manufacturers, broadcasting, copper investment, banking and brokerages real estate services, regional banks and semiconductors equipped have also fared well all right. Well, that pretty much covers this one off pretty much, echoing what uh michael bury had to say. Looking at the heatbank today, it’s pretty mixed, so uh going into friday, it was fairly uh, fairly flat on monthly opex, now we’re seeing clear direction here.
Tech is down. So uh, pretty notably red too right, tesla down 8.5 microsoft, down 2.6 apple down. Three all the semiconductors are down. Banks are up right: banks, largely up utilities, down energy, doing well, so again, a lot of those sectors which have been big laggards like materials, energy, uh. Cruise and travel all doing pretty good today so again, pretty pretty mixed board here, right, uh! No, oh no let’s have a look through these individual etfs and see what’s going on here. So fxi big old slide, yuck uh utilities, which are generally a safe haven, are also taking a big taking a punch on the chin today down about two percent emerging markets down about three percent uh let’s see if we got some support here, trying to bounce off That 55 area there cuca queue is the one that i’m most concerned about so again watching here. Uh tech stocks are actually cutting pretty deep again. Looking at the s p, it actually filled the gap, so gap down pumped up sold off with qqq it gapped down pushed up and pretty much got a rejection here at uh 328, the high of the day is 327.8 pushing down and closing at the low of The day as well right, that is the big concern here, qqq and again, when we look at this board here, it’s pretty obvious which stocks are lagging. We also got a lot of individual big large cap names below their 50 dma now xlv, actually managing to close higher than it opened.
Dia closing green, largely led by stocks like united american airlines, boeing ccl. Ah, boeing actually pushed back down to red ccl closing up green. What about expedia speedy is green here. So again the dow is getting a push higher and likely seeing rotation. Uh sby we talked about let’s jump over to nysc. So again, nyse is includes every stock. In the new york stock exchange, it’s roughly 2 000 and again, mostly going sideways here so again, what we heard was that uh, these stocks that have done the best over the last period are likely going to be the ones to have a uh a harder hit. Here and again, the new york stock exchange is pretty much confirming that the average stock is not really all that down right down. 0.14 percent uh tech is down today by 2.6 right, more than 10x iwm actually getting a sell today. Gold actually catching a bid, so what’s very curious about gold. Is that going into the end of the month and end of the week we’re going to be closing out this monthly candle here huge cup got a handle and uh. We got about 1780 versus 18.5 for about a 70 dollar range here, it’s up about uh 25 bucks on the day, xlf new, all time high and closing out at the high right didn’t. Even uh was un unfaced. Here right s, p go down; xlf go up! The vix is closing up six percent lower than it open, but uh right that looks like a hammer, wants to go higher and then excel lee right, xl, lee or energy, actually getting a pretty big bump up up bump up today i can’t talk looking at the Next resistance area – here it got through it, so energy wants to rally and uh goldman sachs was calling for 70 oil today, i believe all right.
I also just got a headline here regarding the stimulus update, probably quickly go through, that oh then pull it over. How is it set to pass biden’s relief bill this week? Here’S what’s here’s what’s next i’m gon na have a look at this in a second here. We also heard out of the uk that uh they’re gon na be uh reopening uh schools but they’re asking most people who work to stay home um. Let me find that article really fast from goldman sachs. Here we go so again par, probably part of the reason why energy is doing so well today is because goldman raises oil forecast c’s jumped to 72 this year, so that’s a pretty big jump, um it’s the raising it from 65 up to 75. We now believe that oil prices will rally sooner sooner and higher the firm said on sunday to note to clients because of fundamentals: fundamentals higher gross marginal costs, at least in the short run, as well as the ongoing reflationary asset rotation. So again, that rotation is underway. Goldman sachs is pretty much confirming it and looking here, the house is set to pass uh relief bill this week, here’s what’s next president joe biden’s 1.9 trillion package advanced out of the house budget committee on monday and is virtually set for a full house vote later. This week, democratic democratic democrats led by speaker, pelosi are expected to pass it along party lines, friday or saturday.
If passed by the house, the bill will proceed to the senate, where some of the bill’s biggest provisions, such as the 15 minimum wage, could be cut all right. So if you want to read more about this, we will drop that link in the description and just feel free to click on that. If you want to learn more um, i think that’s pretty much it so again, uh trying to figure out exactly what the best format is for these videos and if you guys have feedback, please make sure to. Let me know: uh we went through the heat map. Went through the news had to have a look at the economic calendar and uh let’s, look and see how the rest of the world compared to what the market did today um, so smp is closing down by about 0.7 percent. Let’S have a look at the global market here so uh. Japan, actually closed green looks like hang, shen is down, one uh dax is down 0.3 and the cac. Sorry ftse is down 0.18, so the west is the second biggest decliner out of the major markets. I’M. Ignoring china here i’m looking at the hong kong, i hang chen uh that’s pretty much it so uh lots of lots of lots of uh potential for this week, but again direction remains unclear. So if this bill is getting voted on by friday, the biggest thing i’m gon na be watching for is whether or not jay powell says anything dovish tomorrow or hawkish meaning.
Is he going to be bullish for stocks or bearish for stocks and again just looking at the top line here again, u.s surpasses 500 000 after a year long battle with the lockdown right yuck. That is a very, very bad number. I hope everyone’s staying safe out there and again going into the rest of the week now. I think we got to be careful um. If we get that back test to 385.5, we have to watch and see what the reaction is. So if we get that test down there tomorrow, what i’m gon na be watching for is what level do we hit? Is it 386? Is it 385.5? Is it 385 and then, if we bounce back above 385.5, are we able to at least reclaim 386. that’s going to be the really big test for me tomorrow? So again, last thing to look at here is just going to be the hourly chart and for tomorrow for us to break break bullish. We have to get back above basically ‘0.. If we do that by noon. We’Re going to be ball breaking here, i’m, not sure which way it’s going to go, though, so i wish you guys wish you guys the best of luck going into the trading week ahead and uh again. All we can do is expect the best be prepared for the worst and be ready for a surprise if you wan na what, if you wan na, learn more about that, i would encourage you to go watch uh, today’s lunchtime stream, where we talked about all the Stuff again, risk management how to prepare for the worst, how to prepare for the best and, again that surprise, i wish you the best of luck and i look forward to seeing you tomorrow.
Thank you. Thank you.