The 5th today is monday. I am your host beam them up. Scotty scotty webb catch the show at the vsx digital networks at vsx.com, follow on twitter at webby, 20 mlb and all sports. No bull now listen to the show on the riffer app get into micro podcasting, avoiding all the getting all the information that you need in a quick and easy to the point. No more boring sports talk download the rift app from your app store. Today. Try fubo seven days free, no credit check, no deposit or hidden fees, get strong, vpn protect your internet, bets shopping online and meetings 40 off go to vsx.com and in today’s show. I wanted to bring up a couple things one. I wanted to go over a brief recap of what’s been going on and then two we’re going to talk about two new strategies today and then we’re going to talk about our wager that we’re going to make. So in looking at a recap of where we’re at and what’s going on, we’ve been struggling here to get started and that’s okay, i mean it’s, not it’s, not uh, it’s, not what you want to have happen, but what you want to do is make sure there’s. Several things in play: number one: you got ta, have a plan, um you’re, not just out there. Just throwing um plays to the wind and then number two. You want to make sure that you have a process within that plan and that you’re following that process, because if your process is not accurate, then you can always make adjustments to that process.
And one of the things i wanted to discuss today was how you do those things, because i made a small adjustment today. So, looking back at some of the things that have been going on, yeah we’ve been a little unlucky, but that we’re not going to use luck as our crutch to a poor start. What we’re going to do is we’re going to adjust the plan that’s. The smart thing to do so over the course of years. You get to a point where you have an idea of exactly what it is. You want to do and i’ve been able to be successful in the first week of major league baseball season by utilizing what teams have done and players have done over their last say month of the last season of a year ago and then carry that forward. So that’s, obviously what i’ve done this time and as we go forward, those are the things that i’m trying to keep making sure that i’m looking at is: how do we? How do we do these things and what are we doing to um adjust if we need to that’s where this season is different than almost any of the other seasons, because last year was only a 160 game season? A normal season is 162 games, so they played barely a third more than what they did uh in a blip of a of a normal season. So in utilizing and understanding that that might not be the right approach, what i’ve done is made a small adjustment and the adjustment that i’m using now is a lot less based off of what the actual performance was from a 60 game season a year ago, but Based off of what the progression regression models and the projections look like so today is the first day we’re going to be utilizing.
Some projection analysis, pictures and some of the things that have been going on we’ve got burned on a couple pictures based off of what they did last year. First, one comes to mind is matt harvey we got burned on another. One that comes to mind is um jeff hoffman yesterday from the from the reds. So these guys, who pitched really poorly in the past, did not pitch poorly in their first start. So as we go into the next section here, i wanted to make sure that you understood that as you go along you’re going to have peaks and you’re going to have valleys. Sometimes the valleys are deep, sometimes the valleys last a long time. Sometimes the peaks are high, and sometimes the peaks last months. So the reality is, is that you’re, just gon na have to ride the flow and whether you start good or you start bad understand where you are and as a handicapper and a gambler, you need to be making sure that you’re doing the wise things and not Throwing bad money at what you’re doing so. Second, today we’re going to talk about two new strategies that we want to kind of start looking at, one of them is based off of now. The first series of these games are over and we’re looking at travel situations off of series. So what does that mean? That means um teams play either three games or four games, usually against the same team same city.
Once that series is over those three or four games. They call that a series. Then they travel to another city, whether that be going to their home stadium, home city or whether that be traveling to another uh city, where they have to be on the road again. So there are situations where those are advantageous to a gambler. We want to look at first games, not a whole series of those things. So how does that work? That means say, for example, you have a team that is off of an away series and they lost that series. So they played a team three times and they only won once and they lost twice so that’s a losing away series. But then they come home for the next series. If you follow that trend, that’s a 54 winning attribute to that team coming home for that spot, so 54 percent of the time just be based off of them losing and then coming home they’re going to win that game, one of the ones that we really want To strive for to watch is the home series lost, so say a team was at home and they and they played two series. So say they played the first series and they went one and two in the second series. They did the same thing. They went one and two, so that means they lost both those series and now they’re going to go travel to a new city. Well, there’s a carryover effect here and that carryover effect is, is something that most people have no idea about.
And that is that, if team that’s off of a home series, when they travel to a new series, only wins ‘ of the time on the road. In that first game, so we want to capitalize on these situational spots and especially now that the games are moving into the second teams that they’re going to face, and then they obviously go. Third. Fourth, fifth, all the way down to you know 162 games, but these are serious things that we really want to watch because um these are areas where sports books, don’t look um, and these are also spots where, as a handicapper, you find things that attribute to what You do where other people aren’t looking to um, so these are the things that i look at and that’s a very good spot for us. We need to find some of those spots as we go forward and another one, and this is just going to sound uh a little simplistic but it’s it’s reasonable and makes sense um. You want to bet on teams that score runs it’s, pretty simple, so you don’t want to go, be betting on teams that don’t score runs. So you know if you’re betting on, say the houston astros or the los angeles dodgers or the kansas city royals. Those are the three teams that are best in offense. Currently, you don’t want to be betting on the teams that are on the bottom of the list, like the atlanta braves right now, the atlanta braves haven’t been able to score any runs so there’s a there’s, a big misconception, a lot of times in gambling, especially baseball, Where pictures are what you handicap and yes, you spend the majority of your time.
Looking at pictures, however, there are many cases where the offensive advantage that one team has over. The other should never be overlooked and, in fact is a reason why you can make a wager and if you’re, betting, on hot, hitting teams and you’re betting against cold hitting teams and they play each other and you have a reasonable line. You have a great wager. So, having said that, we’re in one of those spots today, where i’m going to be wagering on the kansas city, royals today, i’m going to be wagering on danny duffy, he’s plus 100 against the cleveland indians. Today, who are throwing a young guy, his name is logan he’s, not 23 years old. Last year he was a relief pitcher for them and we’re getting plus 100 and, as we said before, the kansas city, royals are one of the number one offenses in baseball. I think they’re number three going into it the way i look at them on offensive board and then the cleveland indians are one of the worst ones on offense, even though they had a pretty good day yesterday. So that puts us in an advantageous situation on the offensive side, plus we’re, getting a good line value at plus 100. So today we made some adjustments. We also have incorporated one of our new gutting strategies into one of our wagers. So hopefully, tomorrow, when we do a recap, we can have some big winners and we can celebrate uh a winning day for the first time in a little while this season, all right.
So thank you very much.