But the question is who’s going to get impacted by the highest tornado threat and the large hail. I have all those details coming right up: Music. Welcome back to another super awesome, video, everybody. I am david schlotthauer and i hope everybody is having a really awesome tuesday. Before i do get started with the video, if you really like weather content, i would ask that you do subscribe, so you support my youtube channel and also be sure to give this like and share this with your family and friends on social media, be sure to Check out our super awesome weather club discord server. There is a link in the description below this video. It is 100 free to join today all right, everybody here’s, a detailed look at the h, triple r model that was rendered at 18z this afternoon, if you’re in central time and as we take a look at tomorrow’s, severe weather outbreak, because we are very concerned that There is a threat for tornadoes. Some of them could be brief and could be somewhat short tracked and we’re. Also, looking at the threat for very large hail that could reach about two to three and a half inches in diameter, along to go with some very strong damaging winds that could exceed over 80 miles an hour, especially for southwestern texas. I have more on that in the spc forecast, but as we do take a look here at tomorrow morning, right around the seven o’clock in the morning hour of your wednesday for your uh morning, commute here and as we do take a look here, we do have Some elevated convection that will be ongoing across portions of oklahoma for northeastern panhandle of texas.
We got more strips and bands of showers and thunderstorms that will be moving across portions of missouri, also for northern arkansas, and even a little bit of that band of rain could go all the way into kansas city, so maybe some severe weather briefly there for that Area we’re also looking at some showers and thunderstorms here for michigan and also for iowa. As we start your early morning, hours of this convective forecast, but as we go into the later morning into the early afternoon, hours more showers and thunderstorms will be developing here. What it appears on the hr model, we got a lot of showers and thunderstorms that look to fire up across central missouri also for oklahoma. We have more scattered showers and thunderstorms, capable of some very strong winds, some large hail and maybe a brief tornado. We also have the threat here for more storms that will be popping up across northern texas into the early morning, convective cycle into the early afternoon, as well as indiana and ohio. We could be looking at some uh, discreet showers and thunderstorms, capable of some tornadoes there. Also, yes, ethan b you’re going to want to chase tomorrow, it’s going to be a little interesting for your area with multi, clustered supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and the possibility for some tornadoes, a two percent chance with what i’m going for right now. I have not included it in my forecast, but i wouldn’t be surprised if that does change in my day.
One outlook tonight when i make it with sheriff boy with rose quartz. We are a team and we are going to forecast and collaborate in tonight’s outlook for day. One look for that in the day one outlook of the discord server if you have joined with the link in the description below this video, as we do take a look at your wednesday afternoon into a wednesday evening here for many areas, there’s going to be some Very intense uh semi discrete supercells here more supercellular in fashion here for southwestern texas. If you are in northern texas, more of a linear storm mode with multi clustered supercells here that could form over northeastern panhandle of texas. More of a linear storm mode here into missouri. Also for southern portion there of illinois that could also impact portions here of southern indiana, with ongoing convection here for ohio throughout the uh mid to late afternoon hours tomorrow, as more forcing uh four cent attending that moisture advection into the frontal boundary that is going to Be draped over indiana ohio for portions of missouri, with the dry line extending westward into texas and central texas, but look at this everybody look at these storms in southwestern texas. This is just incredible. Okay, we don’t see this very often on the models. Very intense super cells that could form here with um rate reflectivity as high as 70 decibels or greater that’s, going to support three to four and a half inch diameter hailstones.
That could be very significant. Okay, we could be looking at giant hail as deemed by the spc. They always use the term giant hail. We will be using it in this vid video. Actually, we could be using the term uh um, ethan, b, size hail or gorilla, size hail or in another words we could be using the term rose, quartz, size, hail and or candy s. Size hail in that area, so very large, damaging destructive, hail is expected here. In southwestern texas tomorrow this could cause injuries. We will be live streaming on this. Certainly, tomorrow, right now, i’ve issued a live streaming. Severe weather watch due to the fact that we are going to be seeing that threat for severe weather also for oklahoma is going to be ongoing with the severe weather, but look at this. This is going to be very robust and intense tomorrow into the evening hours into the overnight hours of wednesday into thursday. Look at how impressive these storms could actually be, but then, as we get past midnight pacific daylight time, this would be about three or four. In the morning central daylight time. These storms will eventually fall apart as convective inhibition does overtake the region, and so more of these storms will be elevated and will be significantly weaker, but still tomorrow could be a really rough day across southwestern texas. Much of this area really i’m watching very closely. For the severest weather to pop up tomorrow, so as we do take a look briefly at the northeast here, we don’t want to forget about my viewers that live in upstate new york in pennsylvania, also for in ohio, virginia vermont area.
We got to keep an eye on this tomorrow for severe weather, marginal risk for severe weather at this time with some boeing segments or some semi discrete super cellular mode that could be forming in linear mode into pennsylvania. Tomorrow, these storms are going to be kind of weakening, as they move further east, especially over new york. Here we have a little bit of intensity storms that could be moving over your area. Maybe a couple of clusters here moving into portions of boston massachusetts with another cluster here moving into southwestern pittsburgh uh pennsylvania here into the afternoon evening, hours and then that’s really going to be the extent of that for the northeast, but again uh some large hail. Some very strong gusty winds possible with these storms for the northeast with less than a two percent chance for tornadoes, but we cannot rule out maybe an upgrade to a two percent in my next outlook. Stay tuned for that on my discord server in day, one convective outlooks. So as we do take a look at our bulk shear zero to six kilometer above ground level, bulk shear, we want to see bulk shear very high. If you want organized storms tomorrow for severe weather – and we do especially right down in here where these storms do fire up – we have bulk shear values anywhere between 70 to 85 knots. That is very, very extreme. That is very sufficient enough for very strong updrafts.
That could be pretty intense. We also have bulk shear here across central texas, that could be on the order of 55 to 65 knots in the portions of oklahoma. We have bulk shear anywhere between 60 to 75 knots, which would be sufficient for some organized convection capable of very large hail stones, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Also, we have some bulk shear here. That could be a little modestly strong. Also this. On top of a 500 millibar height, okay, so we’re looking at the sheer lift instability, moisture profiles here of what we really need to look at, because this is very important because you cannot have severe weather. If you don’t have this, you got to have the ingredients. You got to have the shear profiles. You have to have the instability profiles, you have the you need to have the lifting profiles, also that are over spreading the warm sector, and you have to have instability and also a moisture that is available. So we do take a look here on the models. You can certainly see some very strong, mid level flow patterns here that are going to be anywhere between 60 to 85 knots over texas and over oklahoma. Again, why i’m talking about this area is because of the fact is. This is where the severest weather will be concentrated tomorrow, we’re not really concerned much about the northeast or the great lakes region that’s, because some of these storms will pop up and they’ll probably dissipate more kind of pulsating, clustered storms, but these over here in texas and Oklahoma will be very ongoing, they will be long tracked and they can be pretty intense tomorrow, all right so that’s.
Why we’re really focusing on this area. So as we do take a look at the 850 millibar flow pattern here, the low level jet definitely stout across the warm sector here ahead of where this uh portivation is going to be moving eastward here with extent, uh we’re going to have a lot of low Level flow here with mid level fl flow profiles here, that’s going to generate a lot of lift forcing for a cent here and falling heights aloft and that’s going to generate more instability and also steeping mid level lapse rates throughout the mid levels. Besides mid level lapse rates, here, we’re going to be looking at modest buoyancy here, uh with mid level lapse rates anywhere between about seven to eight degrees celsius per kilometer. This is enough to facilitate and foster organized supercells, capable of really large hail stones of at least three to four inches in diameter we’re, looking at some very strong damaging winds because, as you know, when we have a lot of dry air aloft, we also have a Lot of evaporational, cooling and cold pooling and that does get generated, and so we could have some very vigorous, downdraft and updraft potential with some of these storms that do initialize here in southwestern, texas and also if any storms can fire up here in portions of northern Panhandle of texas, we have statement level lapse rates as much as 8.5 or greater in some of these counties here, right along where that convergence line is going to be noted, and so any storms that do try to form here could produce some very large hail.
That could be a problem, some of the hail or some of the storms that do try to initialize here will not be much of a hail producer, and that is because our mid level lapse rates should not be quite as steep anywhere between a six to a 6.5 degrees celsius per kilometer versus the 8.5, like we could be looking at in southwestern texas. This on top of very strong sbl um indexes here, uh that are going to be very strong here, anywhere between negative 8 to negative 10, which fosters and is supportive for organized supercells. A lot of updraft downdraft potential rfds straight line winds out of this – could be also a problem with some of the storms. Surface based convective, available potential energy here, it’s about how much energy is in the atmosphere, and so what you want is high numbers. That means there’s a lot of potential energy in the air. So if a area of low pressure moves through – and you get a lot of forcing this energy is get to is going to be put to great use for thunderstorms and so we’re looking at and now this is a thunderstorm that forms here, but this is an Earlier convective cycle map here of the 22z run, and so we could actually see here. We have a lot of instability that does get generated tomorrow due to daytime heating steepening mid level lapse rates, moisture being infected, northward, very warm temperatures and also wind shear profiles do generate a lot of instability at the surface and, as we do take a look here At the moisture in the lower levels of the atmosphere, definitely moist out there dew points anywhere between 65 to 70 degrees, very humid, very muggy, very warm, very sticky here, and especially when we do get very strong convergence here along the um rio grande area mountain chain.
Here in mexico, where we get surface wind backing uh very uh, what we would call kind of a bent back or backed um convection here that gets kind of staggered up along the rio grande mountain chain. Here this is going to be again the facilitation for very intense supercells, capable of again that very large hail with daytime highs tomorrow in the mid to upper 80s in some areas, very warm mid 90s, where these storms could pop off tomorrow. So very, very warm temperatures. Oh, my you just, i cannot think of a time where we had temperatures, this warm for severe weather, and so this could be um pretty concerning, especially where all these warm temperatures do consign and consolidate tomorrow in this region, significant tornado perimeter is certainly elevated um, especially In these areas, where, again, we got a lot of that maximum directional shear strongest helicity in the zero to one kilometer range profiles. This again would support two to four on the index here of the stp values on top of scp values. Here uh, we are looking at anywhere between a 20 to a 30, which again is our supercell composite indexes that are sufficient for severe supercells tomorrow. So therefore, in my spc forecast that i did generate here, here’s a categorical look at your wednesday, i did include an enhanced risk for central and southwestern texas, as well as near lubbock, texas, amarillo, texas, near san antonio. You are under a marginal risk for severe weather.
Please be sure you do watch this part of the video, if you’re interested in who’s, going to get what oklahoma city you’re under a slight risk for severe weather. If you are in a marginal risk that extends across southern indiana central ohio, northwestern portion of pennsylvania into upstate, new york, western portion of new york state, as well as buffalo watertown new york into kansas city you’re, under a marginal risk for severe weather again, this does Include the possibility for tornadoes now the tornado perimeters are going to be more south here into oklahoma city for the norman oklahoma for central southern portion there of texas southwestern texas. I did have to introduce a 10 chance for tornadoes. The reason for that is, i just have a feeling due to the sheer profiles that we have here with significant wind backing i’m pretty concerned for any organized supercells that could be producing some tornadoes. One or two supercells capable of at least one or two tornadoes cannot be ruled out. That could be significant tomorrow, not enough for a sig probability being introduced in my forecast, but enough to where we do have to keep an eye on this um. If this does get extended, but i don’t think i will need to extend that in my next outlook. Five percent for oklahoma city, as well as near the lubbock texas, a two percent chance for tornadoes and also for dallas. A two to five percent chance for tornadoes cannot be ruled out in that area so now for the marginal risk and slight risk for uh the hail or the wind probabilities here.
So these are the winds that we’re looking at anywhere between a five percent chance. Therefore, again, where the marginal risk covers into ohio into the uh, the watertown new york, buffalo new york stretching into central pennsylvania as well as oklahoma city, where you’re under a 15 percent chance for damaging winds tomorrow, i did not need to introduce a 30 chance for Wind yet, but i am going to have to re analyze the models as we go to the zero z run tonight, to see, if i’m going to introduce something. Then uh for kansas city you’re near a five percent chance for some damaging winds. Now for the hail threats here, i did include a 30 significant for da for very large hail from southwestern texas into central and north central texas here, due to the fact that we are going to have some uh of the most forcing and the most uh probabilities For any organized supercell capable of very large hail that could be on the order of about three to four inches in diameter: oklahoma city you’re under a 15 chance for hail, as well as indiana, with a 5 chance for hail in your area, but anyways. If you guys did like today’s weather content, i hope you guys did love it a lot. If you guys did, i would ask that you do subscribe. It really helps out so much everybody. We are less than 50 subscribers away from 28 000. So if you have not subscribed yet, i would really appreciate that you do subscribe right now to stay up to date on the severe weather that i will be covering.
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